Bitcoin cenas pieaug, taču atveseļošanās izskatās vāja ģeopolitisko neskaidrību apstākļos — tirgus pārskats

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1253 GMT - Bitcoin rises but remains weak as geopolitical uncertainty limits demand for risky assets. The cryptocurrency served as a barometer for risk sentiment at the weekend when most markets were closed, initially falling after the U.S. and Israel traded military strikes with Iran, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. However, some reports have raised hopes for an end to the conflict, they say. President Trump told the New York Times he was open to lifting sanctions on Iran while the WSJ reported that Iranian security chief Ali Larijani made a fresh push to resume nuclear talks with Washington. Bitcoin rises 0.7% to $66,024 but remains nearly 50% below its high of $126,223 reached in October, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1252 GMT - The jump in energy prices since the weekend's military action in the Middle East is a mild stagflationary shock for the eurozone, Capital Economics economists Andrew Kenningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds say in a note. That would make European Central Bank rate cuts slightly less likely than otherwise, they say. "If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation, and activity would be fractionally weaker," they say. Still, the Iran conflict doesn't yet significantly change the outlook for monetary policy, because the bar remains high for policymakers to change rates again. That said, if Brent prices rose to $100 a barrel, and Dutch TTF gaS to 50 EurosA Megawatt-hour, headline inflation would be about 1 percentage points higher, they say. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1228 GMT - U.K. money and lending data for January support other evidence that the economy strengthened at the start of the year, even if Middle East developments mean that might not last, Capital Economics' Ruth Gregory says in a note. The 1.8 billion pound increase in consumer credit that beat consensus and smaller rise in cash in households' bank accounts compared with December suggest consumers are becoming a bit more comfortable opening their wallets, she says. "The growing risk is that an inflationary shock from the event in the Middle East limits interest-rate cuts and puts a handbrake on growth this year," Gregory says. Weak employment growth and slowing wage growth will likely prevent consumer spending from growing much more than 0.8% in 2026, she adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1224 GMT - Spanish premier Pedro Sanchez calls for an immediate end to spiraling violence in the Middle East as the military fallout from the weekend's attacks continues. Iranian attacks on Gulf states and other U.S. allies continue Monday as the country responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks that over the weekend killed Iran's supreme leader and other top brass. Israel and Lebanese group Hezbollah, meanwhile, traded blows Monday. Sanchez, who condemned the initial U.S.-led attacks, said Iran's attacks were "illegal and indiscriminate" and hit out at Israeli and Hezbollah actions. "Violence merely engenders violence," he wrote in a post on X. "This cycle must be brought to an end immediately," Sanchez said. "We must return to a framework of diplomacy and dialogue." (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

1213 GMT - The Canadian dollar falls against a stronger U.S. dollar but hits a six-and-a-half-month high against the euro. Military action across the Middle East drives safe-haven flows to the U.S. dollar but the Canadian dollar is supported versus European currencies as it benefits from higher oil prices resulting from the conflict, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. If crude extends gains, the Canadian dollar should continue outperforming, they say. However, "if markets shift toward a deeper global growth scare, the Canadian dollar could struggle despite higher oil." The U.S. dollar rises 0.1% to 1.3660 Canadian dollars. The euro falls 0.6% to 1.6020 Canadian dollars, having hit a low of 1.5994 earlier. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1209 GMT - Issuance of new corporate bonds from the Middle East is likely to stop in the near term amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, CreditSights analysts say in a note. Increased market volatility and uncertainties are likely to lead to a freeze in new bonds from the region, the analysts say. The conflict is likely to drive demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, they add. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1133 GMT - The dollar could extend its gains if the Middle East conflict escalates further, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. The conflict has triggered risk aversion, higher oil prices and a bid for liquidity, they say. This has translated into dollar strength given its safe-haven role and America's energy independence. "If anything, we are a little surprised that the market reaction has not been more pronounced, with DXY dollar index gains still shy of 1% compared to Friday's close." The dollar's near-term direction hinges on whether the conflict looks contained or escalates with risks skewed in favor of further appreciation, they say. The DXY rises 0.7% to 98.223 after earlier hitting a five-week high of 98.566. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1116 GMT - The eurozone is where the macro consequences of military action in the Middle East hit hardest, ING economists say in a note. The eurozone was finally emerging from stagnation, despite new uncertainty regarding tariffs. "Now the region could face an energy shock on top of a trade shock," they say. It means the European Central Bank is caught in a genuine dilemma: the region faces an oil shock likely to push headline inflation higher, yet a growth outlook similarly deteriorating under the weight of tariffs, uncertainty, and now energy costs, the economists say. ECB forecasts have previously shown that a 14% increase in oil prices would push up inflation by 0.5 percentage points and could reduce GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points, they add. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1101 GMT - Markets lower expectations of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in March due to inflation concerns given the conflict in the Middle East. Investors fear increased oil prices and higher inflation, which would make it more difficult for central banks to reduce interest rates in order to support their economies. "The prospect of a sharp rise in oil and gas prices does bring concerns around an inflationary surge," Scope Markets' Joshua Mahony says in a note. Markets price in a 68% chance of a BOE rate cut in March, down from an 83% chance priced in last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1055 GMT - U.S. money markets show investors expect the Federal Reserve could wait until September to cut interest rates as a surge in oil prices sparks inflation concerns. Conflict in the Middle East following strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran could cause higher inflation at a time when many Fed policymakers have suggested they are in no hurry to reduce rates. "Rising crude oil prices linked to geopolitical instability are feeding into expectations of renewed energy-driven inflation pressures," says Kudotrade's Konstantinos Chrysikos. Money markets aren't fully pricing a 25 basis-point rate cut until September, having previously priced this for July or even June, LSEG data show. The two-year Treasury yield rises 3.1 basis points to 3.410%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1043 GMT - Central and Eastern European currencies fall as the Middle East conflict lifts energy prices and weakens risk sentiment, ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. Central and eastern Europe is heavily reliant on energy imports, he says. The currencies are also sensitive to swings in risk sentiment. The Hungarian forint and Turkish lira look particularly vulnerable given investors have recently bet on these currencies rising, he says. The euro rises 1.2% to 379.06 Hungarian forint, having hit a 10-day high of 381.13 earlier, LSEG data show. The dollar rises 0.1% to 43.9610 Turkish lira after reaching a record high of 44.0151 earlier. The euro also reaches a 12-week high of 4.2392 Polish zloty and a 12-day high of 24.269 Czech koruna. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1037 GMT - Global financial markets, especially equities, are likely to be buffeted by swings in investor risk appetite as the conflict in Iran ebbs and flows, Capital Economics economists say in a note. They caution that government bonds may not provide a reliable safe haven if the conflict intensifies, as expectations for monetary easing could be pushed back. That is especially so in economies such as the U.S., where markets have priced in a larger number of rate cuts. The U.S. dollar will likely continue to strengthen if sentiment worsens, supported by the end of rate cuts moving relative yields in its favor, as well as the country's position as a net energy exporter. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260302004178:0/