Bitcoin cenas kritums saistīts ar šaubām par konflikta risinājumu Tuvajos Austrumos — tirgus pārskats

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0806 GMT - Bitcoin falls as doubts over an imminent end to the Middle East conflict weigh on risk sentiment. Iran is reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war but denies U.S. claims about formal talks, leaving markets "highly sensitive to conflicting headlines and skeptical about a near-term resolution," IG analysts say in a note. Higher energy prices stemming from the conflict have reignited inflation concerns, with markets pricing out interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and some central banks, including the European Central Bank, signalling potential rate rises, they say. Bitcoin falls 1.4% to $70,022, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0758 GMT - Nordic markets are seen opening lower, with IG calling the OMXS30 down 0.9% at around 2917. The U.S. administration is doing what it can to calm the market, even as attacks continue in the Middle East, SEB's Amanda Sundstrom writes. "Reports of more U.S. troops on their way to Iran are raising concerns about ground operations, and the market is torn between hope and despair." Stock markets rose in Europe and the U.S. Wednesday, but sentiment has soured in Asia. Norges Bank announces a decision Thursday. Although unlikely, SEB can't completely rule out a rate hike. European consumer sentiment, U.S. jobs data and central bank speeches from the ECB, Fed and Riksbank are due. OMXS30 closed at 2943.35, OMXN40 at 2418.58 and OBX at 1934.74. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0750 GMT - Market expectations for the Bank of Korea to raise its policy rate by nearly 100 basis points over the next 12 months appear to overstate inflation risks from energy shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict, Goldman Sachs analysts say. "We do not expect the BOK to turn hawkish in the near term, as upside inflation pressures are constrained by fuel price caps alongside nation-wide energy saving measures," the analysts led by Goohoon Kwon write in a note. GS notes that while oil shocks typically heighten stagflation risks, the impact in South Korea is skewed more toward growth headwinds than inflation. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0740 GMT - The dollar rises as the ongoing Iran war pushes oil prices higher and supports safe-haven assets. Several factors are responsible for the renewed rise in oil prices but a "big one" is that Iran has continued to reject messages from the U.S. about progress towards a ceasefire deal, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. The market's attention is quickly turning to the end of President Trump's five-day postponement of military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure on Saturday, they say. Higher energy prices benefit the dollar as the U.S. is a net oil exporter, while markets see a chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 99.668. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0719 GMT - The U.S. Dollar Index is starting to turn higher on the daily chart, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. This raises "the potential for a breakout in line with an apparent five-wave rally" on the chart, the senior market analyst says. An upside break above 100.50 brings the 101.00 level into initial focus, Simpson says. Also, a "241.4% Fibonacci projection from an estimated wave 2" on the chart is just above the 102.00 level, the analyst adds. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.1% higher at 99.667, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0657 GMT - Danske Bank maintains its call for now that the European Central Bank will keep its key policy rate unchanged at 2.00% until the end of 2027, analysts Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen and Jens Peter Sorensen say in a note. "We expect the ECB to look through the negative supply shock, which also puts downward pressure on growth," they say. The analysts, however, emphasize that uncertainty remains elevated and see risks skewed toward the upside for policy rates, they say. Money markets currently price in three rate hikes for this year, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0652 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in Asian trade as markets remain choppy, while President Trump has said he wants to wrap up the Middle East conflict in the coming weeks. Oil prices rise again, with Brent last trading at $104.19. The U.S. Treasury's $44 billion auction of seven-year notes will be scrutinized following weak two- and five-year note auctions earlier this week, while several Federal Reserve governors are set to deliver speeches. The two-year Treasury yield rises 4.5 basis points to 3.925%, while the 10-year yield rises 3.6 basis points to 4.362%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0639 GMT - Singapore's manufacturing performance will likely be volatile in the near term, DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng says in a note. Manufacturing output contracted 0.1% on year in February, due to plant shutdowns during the Lunar New Year holiday. Apart from electronics, other manufacturing segments declined, largely reflecting the temporary shutdowns during the festive period. Electronics output will likely continue to be supported by global artificial intelligence-related tailwinds and external demand for the city's memory chips and server products in the short term. However, Chua warns that rising Middle East geopolitical tensions could disrupt key input supplies for Singapore's manufacturing sector. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0635 GMT - The prospect of persistently higher energy prices should make central banks respond to the growing risks of inflation, DZ Bank's Christian Lenk says in a note. Given the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, DZ Bank has adjusted its main scenario. For the European Central Bank, it now expects two interest-rate hikes over the next six months. For the Federal Reserve, DZ Bank has removed the two rate cuts it previously expected for this year, the analyst says. "It [the Fed rate cut] is not until the course of the first quarter of 2027, when the energy price shock should at least be perspectively digested due to base effects, that the next window for rate cuts is likely to open for U.S. monetary policymakers." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0624 GMT - Monetary policy remains far more supportive of risk assets in the U.S. than in Europe due to, among other factors, divergence in room for manoeuvre in monetary policy, Barclays' analysts say in a note. "On monetary policy, the contrast is clear: despite being more exposed to the oil shock, Europe is still priced for additional tightening, whereas the Federal Reserve has greater scope to look through near-term, energy-driven inflation and remains biased toward easing, rather than renewed hikes," they say. This policy asymmetry reinforces the gap between U.S. and European equities, they say. "The U.S. continues to offer the cleaner combination of mid‑teens earnings growth, acyclical AI‑driven capex, margin support, and policy flexibility that justifies staying long U.S. equities versus Europe." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0617 GMT - Rates markets have begun to price in interest-rate hikes amid elevated inflation expectations in the context of the Middle East conflict, but have ignored potential downside risks to growth, TD Securities' Oscar Munoz says in a note. "Given the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to oil shocks historically, the rates market has struggled to appropriately price the twists and turns of the Iran conflict," the chief U.S. macro strategist says. So far, Treasury market pricing has focused exclusively on the inflation side of the Fed's mandate and has ignored the potential recessionary impacts of higher energy prices, he says. While bond yields could remain elevated in the near term as the Federal Reserve remains in 'wait-and-see' mode, worries about slowing growth could limit the move higher, Munoz says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0617 GMT - Macro concerns around private credit appear largely overstated to Barclays's Corry Short and Dominique Toublan. The alternative asset class is frequently framed as financial markets' next fault line, but its scale alone doesn't imply systemic risk, the strategists say in a note. Private credit is usually held by long-term allocators and retail exposure is limited to vehicles with explicit guardrails. This cuts the possibility of sudden selling pressure that could accelerate broader financial contagion. Lenders and insurers exposed to private credit also have buffers and are unlikely to automatically see losses from stress to the asset class, they add. Barclays reckons elevated software exposure could be private credit's next test for underwriting discipline, but any adjustments such as lower distributions are likely to be gradual.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260326002024:0/