Key takeaways:

The odds of the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged today are 100%.

BTC price may drop as low as $60,000 if support between $72,000 and $65,000 breaks.

100% chance interest rates won’t change

Data from TradingView shows that after breaking out of range on Friday, the
BTCUSD
pair has formed daily candle highs, but was unable to break the resistance at $76,000.

With the ongoing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 17-18, markets could see volatile price swings toward key BTC price levels over the next few days. The interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET.

Polymarket bettors price in a 100% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 3.5% and 3.75%, leaving less than 1% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.

Futures market traders have also locked in a 98.9% chance that the Fed will leave the interest rates unchanged, with virtually no chance of a 25 bps reduction.

However, market participants say that any downside price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.

Meanwhile, there are other sources of volatility that traders have to contend with, including the US and Israel-Iran war, US inflation concerns and oil price spikes, along with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the FOMC meeting.

US President Donald Trump has again pressured Powell to cut interest rates, saying on Truth Social on Thursday that the Fed chair should reduce borrowing rates immediately.

The market will keenly watch Powell’s language at the FOMC news conference to see if there is any shift in tone.
“The rate decision is fully priced in so low surprise risk,” veteran trader Matthew Dixon said in an X post on Wednesday.

The “real volatility catalyst is Powell’s tone,” whether hawkish or dovish, Dixon added.

“Jerome Powell is going to make things sound as good as he can on his last meeting. This is his legacy,” crypto analyst Sykodelic said, adding:

“I think we see a big unwinding of hedges after the meeting and both equities and Bitcoin continue to juice.”
Crypto trader BitcoinHyper said that the BTC price moved lower after the last six FOMC meetings.

Key Bitcoin price levels to watch

Bitcoin must flip the $76,000 resistance level into support to target higher highs above $80,000.

For this to happen,
BTCUSD
must first hold its position above the 50-day simple moving average (yellow line) on the daily chart. BTC price broke above the 50-day SMA on March 1 for the first time since January 1.

If the bulls can push the price above the $76,000-$80,000 resistance level, the next target is the 200-day SMA at $87,411.

One catalyst for higher prices could be continued demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs. On March 17, Bitcoin ETFs registered $199 million in inflows, marking the seventh consecutive day of net inflows.

The bears, meanwhile, will attempt to keep the $76,000 resistance in place, increasing the likelihood of a drop back into the $72,000-$65,000 range, where the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) is.

Below $65,000, the next key area of interest remains between $62,500 and $60,000, which would erase all the gains since Feb. 6.

As Cointelegraph reported, a close below the moving averages would tilt the advantage back in favor of the bears, turning the rally over the past week into a bull trap.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:a2d017340094b:0-bitcoin-stalls-at-76k-key-btc-price-levels-to-watch-ahead-of-fomc/